I think it varies by cat. If they consistently get something like 400 down to 150 (or whatever) and then back to 400 by next PS, they may never get overlap, and if the swings are problematic, need either early shooting or a longer-acting insulin. For Bix, and my impression from what I learned when I got here, was that when you get to the right dose you get good overlap, and this is where PZI can really shine. So yes, no overlap = dose is too low. But again, I don't think it works for all cats, because with the monster drop and/or shorter duration cats, they may be getting a perfect nadir but no overlap, and in that case you can't really increase the dose b/c you don't want a lower nadir (though you can shoot early!).
With Bix I always looked for that flat # from PS to +2 as a sign we were at a good dose. If he rose from PS to +2, then it was a catch up game to get very good action that cycle. When it was flat, it was a Yippee! But then he has seemed to get better duration than many cats. That's why for him I used to increase the dose on a +13, since that chance at overlap was mostly lost, and usually reduced on a +10 or sometimes even +11, b/c the overlap tended to be quite good for him at that point. Of course now it's all out the window because he really doesn't zoom a lot anymore. Without a zoom factor, it's hard for me to tell overlap from pancreas action from who knows what.